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Phillips Curve in Conditions of the Czech Republic
Musilová, Simona ; Půža, Bedřich (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
The bachelor’s thesis is focused on the Phillips curve in conditions of the Czech economics. Validity of the substitution relationship between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate is testing by regression analysis on real data of the Czech Republic during years 1996–2016. In order to better explain variability of the dependent variable, the model is expanded by inflation expectations, which corresponds to the development of the economic theory of the Phillips curve. After that the Phillips curve for the Czech Republic is constructed in Maple using the systems of differential equations.
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Unemployment in the Czech Republic
Klečka, Michal ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Kvaček, Jan (referee)
This paper is aimed at analysis of unemployment in the Czech regions. The key thing is the effort to create a simple model which determinates unemployment in regions. To this, three basic factors are used - inflation, outcome and criminality as they represent fiscal, monetary and social policies. Firstly, the effects of these factors are tested separately by OLS to find their mutual correlation. The average effects of dependence between factors and unemployment in regions are also established by using panel regression. Original and static Phillip's curves are used to measure the impact of level of unemployment on the inflation. The expanded model of Phillip's curve and the dynamic model of natural level of unemployment are used to estimate natural levels of unemployment in regions. The difference version of Okun's law is used to estimate the impact of economy outcome on the level of unemployment. Subsequently, the extended model of Okun's law is used to distinguish the effect of economic cycle on this impact. Correlation of level of unemployment with criminality is measured by simple model, where the change of the first variable is determined by the change of the second variable. All this knowledge is used to create the complex model, which explains the change of the level of unemployment in...
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Phillips curve verification by time series analysis of Czech republic and Germany
Král, Ondřej ; Arltová, Markéta (advisor) ; Blatná, Dagmar (referee)
Government fiscal and monetary policy has long been based on the theory that was neither proven nor refuted since its origination. The original form of the Phillips curve has undergone significant modifications but its relevance remains questionable. This thesis examines the correlation between inflation and unemployment observed in the Czech Republic and Germany over the last twenty years. The validity of the theory is tested by advanced methods of time series analysis in the R environment. All the variables are gradually tested which results in the assessment of the correlation between the time series. The outcome of the testing is presented for both countries and a comparison at international level is drawn. Is is discovered that both of the countries have dependencies in their data. Czech republic has significant dependency in both ways, for Germany is the dependency significantly weaker and only in one way.
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Unemployment and Inflation in the Czech Republic and Neighboring Countries
Kuchařík, Tomáš ; Votava, Libor (advisor) ; Krbová, Jana (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to verify the existence of dependence between inflation and unemployment through the Phillips curve in the Czech Republic and its neighboring countries (Poland, Austria, Slovakia and Germany). This observed relationship is complemented by the economic development of both macroeconomic variables in these countries. The first chapter is devoted to the theoretical background of inflation, unemployment and Phillips curves. In the second chapter, the data used to verify the existence of the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment is defined. The third chapter is country-by-country, with the development of inflation and unemployment rates first and then Phillips curves based on available data. The last section is devoted to a summary of the achieved results.
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A CONCEPT AND METHODS OF ESTIMATION OF THE NAIRU AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE AT THE LABOR MARKET IN THE VISEGRAD COUNTRIES
Jašová, Emilie ; Kadeřábková, Božena (advisor) ; Čadil, Jan (referee) ; Galuščák, Kamil (referee)
This dissertation describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment with the concept of the natural rate of unemployment at which inflation remains unchanged. By comparing NAIRU, as defined in this manner, with the actual unemployment rate, we obtain the gap in unemployment. In connection with the analysed substitution between inflation and unemployment, there can be found a decrease in the importance of the PC in the 1970s, a very popular New Keynesian PC in the 1990s, and doubts over the robustness of the estimates. On the other hand, the concept of the PC and the NAIRU had previously been developed in accordance with the real data. There is a broad consensus on the impact of monetary policy on nominal variables (inflation) and real variables (unemployment). Methods are also being combined and continuously improved This dissertation is seeking to prove or disprove the hypothesis of the NAIRU concept's usability in estimating the economic cycle on the labor market. This hypothesis has helped in the acceptance of: the support for the concept and estimating PC and NAIRU in the literature; the application of measures to refine the estimate of the NAIRU and PC in the empirical analysis of the dissertation; the dissertation conclusion's compliance with the latest international research, with the local authors and with the own research. The contribution of the dissertation can be identified thusly: distribution methods depend upon the different time periods, their treatment and the best methods for the conditions of the countries in the Visegrad Group; the specification of an unstable environment and its impact upon the estimation of the NAIRU and the economic cycle; the calculation of the unemployment rate of the sectors, age categories and their use in estimating the NAIRU and cycle on the meso-level; to determine the effect of different pricing structure indicators in order to estimate the NAIRU and the economic cycle on the labor market and the topicality of their estimates.
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Unemployment hysteresis in the Czech Republic
Bechný, Jakub ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Pavloková, Kateřina (referee)
This thesis presents an empirical analysis of the unemployment hysteresis in the Czech Republic on quarterly data from 1999 to 2015. The hysteresis is modelled by allowing for: (i) impact of the cyclical unemployment on the NAIRU; (ii) impact of the long-term un- employment on the NAIRU. Models are written in state space form and estimated using Bayesian approach. The main contributions of this thesis are as follows. The results pro- vide robust evidence in favour of the hysteresis in the Czech Republic, but precise size of the hysteresis effect is surrounded by relatively large uncertainty. Posterior mean estimates of key parameters indicate that in response to increase in the cyclical unemployment of 1 percentage point, the NAIRU increases by 0.15 percentage points. The first specification of the hysteresis implies that the hysteresis induced changes in the Czech Republic's NAIRU of at most 1 percentage point. The hysteresis specified as impact of the long-term unemploy- ment on the NAIRU then implies even weaker effect, inducing changes in the NAIRU of at most 0.6 percentage points. The models are estimated jointly with the hybrid Phillips curve identified using survey forecasts as proxies for the expectations. Estimate of the expecta- tions' parameter 0.65 indicates the forward-looking nature of the Czech...
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Unemployment in the Czech Republic
Klečka, Michal ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Kvaček, Jan (referee)
This paper is aimed at analysis of unemployment in the Czech regions. The key thing is the effort to create a simple model which determinates unemployment in regions. To this, three basic factors are used - inflation, outcome and criminality as they represent fiscal, monetary and social policies. Firstly, the effects of these factors are tested separately by OLS to find their mutual correlation. The average effects of dependence between factors and unemployment in regions are also established by using panel regression. Original and static Phillip's curves are used to measure the impact of level of unemployment on the inflation. The expanded model of Phillip's curve and the dynamic model of natural level of unemployment are used to estimate natural levels of unemployment in regions. The difference version of Okun's law is used to estimate the impact of economy outcome on the level of unemployment. Subsequently, the extended model of Okun's law is used to distinguish the effect of economic cycle on this impact. Correlation of level of unemployment with criminality is measured by simple model, where the change of the first variable is determined by the change of the second variable. All this knowledge is used to create the complex model, which explains the change of the level of unemployment in...
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Phillips Curve in Conditions of the Czech Republic
Musilová, Simona ; Půža, Bedřich (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
The bachelor’s thesis is focused on the Phillips curve in conditions of the Czech economics. Validity of the substitution relationship between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate is testing by regression analysis on real data of the Czech Republic during years 1996–2016. In order to better explain variability of the dependent variable, the model is expanded by inflation expectations, which corresponds to the development of the economic theory of the Phillips curve. After that the Phillips curve for the Czech Republic is constructed in Maple using the systems of differential equations.
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Validation of selected economic theories on macroeconomic data for the Czech Republic
Zoul, Lukáš ; Mirvald, Michal (advisor) ; Matula, Miloš (referee)
The main goal of the thesis is to explore selected economical hypotheses through theoretical conception applying macroeconomics data from the Czech Republic. This thesis includes the following hypotheses: budget deficits solved by increasing taxes, compromise between unemployment and inflation, low impact of budget deficits. To verify these hypotheses, there is a comparison with economic theories such as Laffer curve, which has showed that Laffer peak is at the level of 22 % taxation. Other used theory is the Phillips curve where correlation between inflation and unemployment rate is stronger based on yearly data than on monthly data. Theoretical model IS-LM has confirmed that multiplication effect could have caused the positive economic growth in 2010 and 2011. Even if economical hypothesizes are partially correct, they are not recommended for the government to determine their decisions. There are more efficient long-term solutions that can be used to solve challenges of the recent economic situation.
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